In a dramatic episode of the Bad Natives Podcast, political analyst Andrew Mwenda made startling claims about Uganda’s post-May 2026 political landscape.
Mwenda argued that President Yoweri Museveni may deliberately reduce the presence and visibility of leaders from the Teso sub-region in top government positions as part of a strategic plan to ‘balance the boat’ and ensure a smooth succession process.
Mwenda put a spotlight on the upcoming Speakership race, asserting that DP President Norbert Mao has a significant chance of becoming the next Speaker of Parliament.
He claimed that Mao had initially not planned to contest the Laroo-Pece MP seat in Gulu City but was reportedly persuaded by a direct call from President Museveni to enter the race.
According to Mwenda, Mao’s relative political weakness and lack of loyalists within the ruling party make him an ideal candidate.
Unlike Anita Among, who commands considerable influence in Parliament and beyond, Mao is described as a political “one-man army” who can be easily managed and controlled.
Anita Among, Mwenda explained, has accumulated unparalleled power within Uganda’s political structures.
She controls a majority of MPs across both NRM and opposition parties, exerts influence over judicial appointments, and holds significant sway over the Parliamentary Commission, ensuring that the lowest-ranking employees earn high salaries while powerful figures benefit from lucrative parliamentary positions.
Mwenda argued that Anita Among’s growing influence is a threat to the status quo and a challenge to Museveni’s succession plans.
He emphasized that her political and financial strength has made her a formidable figure, capable of challenging the preferences of the “Museveni universe.”
Kabushenga, a co-host on the podcast, supported Mwenda’s assessment, highlighting that the stakes of the Speakership race are far-reaching.
The winner of the position will significantly influence succession dynamics and power distribution in Uganda over the next five years, potentially determining who takes over when Museveni eventually steps down.
Mwenda claimed that insiders within the ruling party prefer a politically weak Speaker like Mao to avoid any challenge to the ascendance of Museveni’s preferred successor. He suggested that Gen Saleh or Gen MK, the president’s son and current CDF, is likely the intended heir to the presidency.
The podcast panel highlighted how Among’s power has historically allowed her to override judicial decisions, making her virtually untouchable in court matters. Mwenda described this as unprecedented in Uganda’s political history, illustrating her dominance over both legislative and judicial branches.
Beyond Parliament, Mwenda predicted a strategic reshuffling of other top government positions. He asserted that Museveni may prioritize appointing a Vice President from Buganda, carefully selecting someone docile and politically non-threatening to avoid obstructing MK’s future presidency.
The panel further predicted that the role of Prime Minister will also be carefully chosen. Mwenda suggested that someone with strong organizational capacity, rather than just a ceremonial figure, could be tapped to coordinate government business effectively, citing Thomas Tayebwa’s profile as a potential candidate.
According to Mwenda, the need to ‘balance the boat’ will see a deliberate reduction in Teso representation in key posts. This is likely to impact influential officials from the region, who may find their roles diminished in the upcoming government.
Mwenda and Kabushenga noted that seasoned political figures such as Amelia Kyambadde, Henry Tumukunde, Kahinda Otafiire, Jim Muhwezi, and Elioda Tumwesigye will still play a critical role. Despite being part of the “old guard,” these historical figures are expected to influence decisions on key appointments including Speaker, Vice President, and Prime Minister.
Kabushenga stressed the potential of Anita Among becoming Uganda’s President if she secures a second term as Speaker. He argued that her growing network and influence, combined with her alliance with FUFA President Moses Magogo, make her project increasingly difficult to counter politically.
Mwenda observed that many top officials, especially those from the Teso sub-region, may need to adjust to the evolving political dynamics, as Museveni seeks to ensure loyalty while mitigating threats to his family’s succession plan.
The podcast panel also delved into the economic situation, which Mwenda warned is heading toward a crisis. He explained that nearly 46% of government revenue, including projected oil revenues, will be consumed by debt repayment, leaving little room for salaries, service delivery, or maintaining the patronage system.
Mwenda criticized past government investments in private projects, including Atiak Sugar, DEI Pharmaceuticals, Lubowa Hospital, Roko Construction, and the Inspire Africa coffee project, calling them imprudent and a major contributor to public sector liquidity challenges.
Kabushenga also expressed concerns about the sidelining of intellectually sophisticated Ugandans in favor of loyalists, emphasizing that critical sectors like tourism, trade, industry, and agriculture are being neglected, further straining the economy.
The panel highlighted the PDM program, noting that while it secured some votes for NRM candidates, the Shs3 trillion expenditure was not prudently spent, raising questions about fiscal management.
Mwenda warned that the economic challenges would likely intensify over the next two years before any recovery is possible. He called upon Ugandans to pray for divine intervention, suggesting that only a higher power can avert the looming economic calamity.
In conclusion, the Bad Natives Podcast painted a vivid picture of Uganda’s political and economic future. Mwenda’s revelations about power shifts, succession planning, and strategic sidelining of Teso leaders underscore the high-stakes maneuvering taking place within the Museveni administration.
The next few months, leading up to the post-May 2026 government formation, will be crucial in determining how these dynamics unfold.
