Kira Municipality Member of Parliament, Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, has sounded a strong warning that President Yoweri Museveni is carefully transferring state power to his son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba. According to Ssemujju, Muhoozi is being groomed daily and is strategically positioned to inherit control of the country once Museveni exits the political stage. He suggested that if Museveni were to die suddenly, Muhoozi would be the first to know and quickly move to take over.
Ssemujju argued that Muhoozi is still in a learning phase of leadership, which explains his often harsh and forceful tactics against opposition leaders and their supporters. These acts, he said, are deliberate attempts to prove authority and strengthen his grip. He cautioned that Uganda’s opposition has a limited window of opportunity — the upcoming elections — to challenge the system before Muhoozi firmly establishes himself as the inevitable successor.
His concerns were echoed by veteran political journalist turned lobbyist, Richard Baguma. Baguma warned opposition leaders, particularly Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, also known as Bobi Wine, that the political succession game is not in their favor. He explained that Bobi Wine remains an underdog in the battle and must work harder if he hopes to compete with entrenched figures such as Muhoozi and Odrek Rwabwogo, Museveni’s son-in-law and influential government insider.
Speaking openly, Baguma insisted that Museveni cannot be removed through elections alone. He argued that even if Museveni lost power the way Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir or Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi did, control would still fall into the hands of people close to him — not outsiders like Bobi Wine. Baguma emphasized that Bobi Wine has not yet built the full capacity required for state leadership.
Baguma also questioned the effectiveness of Bobi Wine’s youthful support base. While acknowledging the passion and numbers of his followers, Baguma noted that Museveni exploits their lack of experience. Through arrests, intimidation, and imprisonment, the regime continues to weaken Bobi Wine’s movement while demonstrating its dominance.
The political analyst advised Bobi Wine to seek guidance from seasoned opposition leaders like Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu and Dr. Kizza Besigye. He pointed out that both men have extensive networks within state institutions and understand the complexities of challenging Museveni’s rule. Baguma even revealed that Museveni still regards Besigye as a bigger threat than Bobi Wine, due to his military background and long history in opposition politics.
“Yes, Bobi Wine has massive youth support, especially in urban ghettos,” Baguma admitted. “But Museveni turns this strength into a weakness. He argues that young supporters cannot run a nation, and Bobi Wine himself lacks the experience to bring down the government.”
In fact, security concerns around Bobi Wine’s support base are not new. This website has learned that in 2020, Museveni grew alarmed after receiving intelligence reports that former spy chief Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde had infiltrated Bobi Wine’s networks and was financing them to escalate protests. The president reacted swiftly by ordering Tumukunde’s arrest, alongside several youths, many of whom remain behind bars.
Ssemujju further revealed that opposition veteran Dr. Besigye recently stressed to him that elections remain the only chance for a peaceful power transfer. If this chance is missed, Ssemujju warned, Uganda could see Muhoozi firmly in power by 2031. He also told Bobi Wine’s supporters not to assume that they would automatically take over government offices if their leader won. Effective governance, he reminded them, requires experienced administrators.
Meanwhile, national debates over Museveni’s eventual departure continue to grow louder. Justice Minister Norbert Mao has claimed that behind-the-scenes discussions are taking place between government and some opposition groups about a peaceful transition. However, journalist Andrew Mwenda dismissed these claims, arguing that Museveni has no plans of stepping down and is willing to jail anyone — even family members — who threatens his hold on power.
