Veteran journalist and political commentator Andrew Mwenda has predicted that many Ugandans will be taken aback if Norbert Mao ultimately becomes the Speaker of Parliament.
Mwenda made these remarks during a detailed discussion on the Bad Natives Podcast, where he analyzed the dynamics shaping Uganda’s legislative leadership in the coming months.
According to Mwenda, Mao’s potential rise to the Speakership is particularly surprising because his main competitor, Anita Among, is wealthy, politically powerful, and has been a dominant force in the legislature.
He argued that Among’s influence is such that many expected her to continue leading Parliament without challenge.
Mwenda explained that Among has a firm grip over parliamentary structures, with loyalists in both the ruling National Resistance Movement and the opposition.
This network has allowed her to consolidate power and assert significant influence over legislative affairs.
Despite this, Mwenda suggested that powerful actors within the Museveni universe are quietly supporting Mao. He argued that Mao’s political profile – being relatively independent, financially constrained, and lacking a large party base – makes him a strategically suitable candidate for those wishing to maintain balance in the political system.
He emphasized that this backing does not stem from Mao’s personal ambition but from broader political calculations. Mwenda claimed that insiders believe Mao would be easier to manage as Speaker compared to Among, who wields considerable autonomy and influence.
The journalist highlighted that the Speakership has evolved into a position of extraordinary political significance. Control over parliamentary processes, judicial approvals, and administrative resources has made the office one of the most influential in Uganda, which is why many are keenly interested in who occupies it.
Mwenda suggested that Among’s dominance in Parliament is seen by some as a potential threat to long-term succession plans within the ruling establishment. He explained that decision-makers are concerned that unchecked, her influence could complicate the orderly transition of power in future years.
He added that this concern has prompted covert discussions among senior political figures, some of whom are prepared to support a less politically threatening candidate such as Mao. According to Mwenda, these discussions are shaping the strategic environment for the Speakership contest.
Mwenda also described how Mao’s relative political weakness is, paradoxically, a source of strength. He argued that a Speaker who lacks a strong independent base is less likely to challenge the interests of powerful actors within the ruling system.
During the podcast, Mwenda emphasized that this situation could lead to outcomes that surprise ordinary observers of Ugandan politics. He suggested that public perception may not fully account for the behind-the-scenes maneuvers influencing the Speakership race.
He pointed out that Among’s influence extends beyond parliamentary politics. Her control over key administrative and judicial channels gives her leverage across multiple sectors, making her one of the most formidable political figures in Uganda today.
Mwenda warned that such dominance has generated unease among decision-makers who prioritize stability and the protection of strategic political interests. He said that these actors are likely to favor a more manageable Speaker who can ensure balance within the legislature.
He further explained that the potential election of Mao as Speaker would reflect intricate political calculations aimed at preserving the status quo and avoiding concentration of power in a single individual. Mwenda noted that these strategies are deeply rooted in historical precedents of political management in Uganda.
The journalist underscored that the Speakership contest is about more than personalities; it is about control over legislative influence, distribution of power, and safeguarding the interests of the ruling elite. He said that all these factors are at play in the current race between Mao and Among.
Mwenda suggested that those backing Mao are relying on his outsider status within the ruling party. He argued that being “alien” to entrenched party structures could allow Mao to operate as a neutral arbiter, making him a politically safer option for influential decision-makers.
He acknowledged that Among’s established networks and financial resources make her a strong contender. However, Mwenda asserted that strategic interests and careful orchestration by political elites could tip the balance in Mao’s favor.
Mwenda also highlighted that the contest is not only about parliamentary leadership but also about positioning for future political transitions. He explained that the outcome of the Speakership could influence how succession discussions unfold in the next five to ten years.
The journalist emphasized that the stakes are high and that a Mao victory would send a strong signal about the influence of behind-the-scenes political actors in Uganda. He suggested that it would demonstrate how strategic alliances and internal calculations often outweigh public expectations.
Finally, Mwenda concluded that while many people might be surprised by Mao’s potential ascendance, the decision reflects deliberate planning by influential figures within the Museveni universe. He urged political observers to watch closely, noting that Uganda’s political landscape often evolves in unexpected ways when elite negotiations are underway.
Mwenda’s remarks underscore the complex interplay of political power, influence, and strategy that continues to shape the leadership of Uganda’s Parliament, suggesting that the outcome of the Speakership race may defy conventional predictions.
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