Political analyst and journalist Andrew Mwenda has argued that it is too early for Ugandans to dismiss the chances of Norbert Mao becoming the next Speaker of Parliament.
Speaking during the popular Bad Natives Podcast alongside Robert Kabushenga and Charles Onyango-Obbo, Mwenda insisted that there are ongoing discussions within powerful political circles that could change the outcome of the Speakership race.
According to Mwenda, many political observers are underestimating Mao’s chances because they focus mainly on his current political strength. However, he argued that the internal dynamics within the ruling party could make Mao a suitable candidate for the position of Speaker in the next Parliament.
Mwenda made a surprising claim during the discussion, stating that Mao did not initially plan to contest for the Laroo-Pece parliamentary seat in Gulu City ahead of the 2026 elections. He alleged that Mao only decided to run after receiving a phone call from Yoweri Museveni encouraging him to take part in the race.
His fellow panelists, however, expressed skepticism about this claim. Both Kabushenga and Onyango-Obbo questioned the accuracy of Mwenda’s statement and suggested that the situation might not be as straightforward as he described.
Despite the skepticism from his colleagues, Mwenda maintained that there are many influential individuals close to Museveni who would prefer Mao to become Speaker of Parliament. According to him, some of these power brokers believe that the current Speaker, Anita Among, has accumulated too much political influence.
Mwenda argued that Among has grown into one of the most powerful Speakers Uganda has ever had. He said her influence extends beyond Parliament and reaches into the ruling party structures across the country.
He pointed to her victory over Rebecca Kadaga in the Central Executive Committee elections as proof of her growing political strength. According to Mwenda, that victory demonstrated how firmly she has consolidated support within the ruling party.
The journalist further explained that Among’s influence is also visible in Parliament itself. He claimed that she commands strong loyalty from many Members of Parliament, both from the ruling party and from the opposition.
Mwenda also alleged that Among has significant influence over judicial processes because Parliament plays a role in approving judicial appointments. In his view, this gives her additional leverage within the country’s power structures.
He added that her position as head of the Parliamentary Commission also strengthens her authority. Mwenda claimed that under her leadership, salaries within Parliament have increased significantly, with even the lowest-paid staff members reportedly earning very high wages.
He also suggested that many influential people in Uganda rely on connections with the Speaker to secure jobs and opportunities for their relatives within Parliament. This, he said, further increases her political influence.
Because of this growing power, Mwenda argued that some individuals within the political establishment would prefer a weaker figure to occupy the Speakership. According to him, Mao fits that description because he does not have a strong political network within the ruling party.
Mwenda described Mao as a political figure who lacks extensive support structures across the country. In his view, this would make him easier for the political establishment to manage if he became Speaker.
He added that some strategists believe a less powerful Speaker would reduce the risk of internal power struggles during any future leadership transition in Uganda.
Mwenda suggested that discussions about succession within the ruling establishment are already taking place quietly. According to him, some influential figures believe that leadership could eventually pass to a member of the Museveni family.
He mentioned two possible names in those discussions: Salim Saleh and Muhoozi Kainerugaba. Mwenda argued that some strategists want to ensure that no political figure grows powerful enough to challenge such a transition.
The panel also discussed the possibility of balancing regional representation in top government positions. Mwenda suggested that this could influence future appointments, including the choice of a Vice President.
He predicted that the next Vice President might come from the Buganda region as part of efforts to strengthen political support there. He argued that such decisions would be guided by broader political calculations.
Onyango-Obbo, however, offered a different perspective during the discussion. He argued that Museveni has always focused on maintaining his leadership rather than planning a political succession.
According to Onyango-Obbo, the president’s main priority has been to remain in power for as long as possible. He suggested that talk about succession plans might be exaggerated.
Beyond politics, the panel also discussed Uganda’s economic situation. Mwenda warned that the country could face serious economic challenges in the coming years due to rising public debt.
He explained that a large portion of government revenue is expected to go toward debt repayment, which could limit funds available for development programs and public services.
Mwenda also criticized several government-funded projects, arguing that large financial investments in some ventures had strained the country’s finances. He said these decisions had reduced the government’s financial flexibility.
Despite these concerns, the panel concluded that Uganda’s political landscape remains unpredictable. The upcoming decisions on the Speakership, cabinet appointments, and other key positions could shape the country’s political direction for many years to come.
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